![]() ![]() What would you say is truly at stake in this conflict? I’m asking for the average person watching it from a distance who doesn’t think much about the “global order,” who’s probably horrified by what they’re seeing, but just not sure how significant it is or why it matters beyond Ukraine. “The world has lived for 30 years in a historically peaceful period and that’s absolutely at stake” Sean Illing Did they ever think they were going to get that? I doubt it, but I think this has always been about more than Ukraine. And that NATO would essentially withdraw its military position back to what existed in 1997 before the first round of its session.Įssentially, what they were asking for is a completely revised European security order. Their maximal aims are not just “No Ukraine in NATO,” but “No NATO in Ukraine,” meaning no military cooperation with Ukraine. I don’t think they can achieve the grandiose aims they’ve laid out prior to this invasion. Sean Illingĭoes Russia have that kind of power? William Wohlforth But underlying all of this is this question of whether Russia has the power to end the European order that it has faced essentially since 1991. What the terms of the settlement of this war will ultimately be are still up in the air. How that all pans out is still up in the air. But there’s also this gigantic clash of economic statecraft happening between the United States and a huge array of allies. There’s obviously the Ukrainians fighting way better than we thought, and the Russians are fighting worse than we thought. We’re seeing a fateful confrontation of different kinds of power with different actors, all concentrated on this struggle. If they can succeed in at least forcing this order to stop, that will be, to some degree, a change from what existed after the end of the Cold War. To be clear, I’m not justifying Russia’s behavior, I’m just explaining it. Russia never liked this, and it especially didn’t like the idea of extending this order to Ukraine. ![]() And it was grounded on the principle that any state neighboring NATO could join it, except Russia. That is what is being contested in Ukraine, because the post-Cold War order has been built on an architecture of security in Europe, based on NATO. I hate to say it, but the fate of the global order hangs in the balance. Vladimir Putin has never liked this order and the best way of interpreting what’s happening in Ukraine and Europe today is a struggle over that order. And that was grounded on America’s unprecedented position of power in the international system. When the Soviet Union fell, we saw a revived and expanded order based on pretty liberal principles in most respects. When people say that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is the end of the global order, what does that mean? William Wohlforth I wanted to know what he thinks is truly at stake in this conflict, and if one of humanity’s greatest achievements - a rules-based system that nearly abolished the idea that nations can use brute force to take whatever they want - has come to an end.Ī lightly edited transcript of our conversation follows. Wohlforth studies the post-Cold War world and he’s a close observer of Russian foreign policy. To get some answers, I reached out to William Wohlforth, a professor of international politics at Dartmouth. Is this the end of the global order? Are we entering a new era of great power conflict? Are we already looking at World War III? And that is perhaps the scariest thing about this conflict: No one really knows how it will play out. It’s worth remembering that we’re only a week into this war and things are changing by the day. Every government will be watching closely to see what unfolds in Ukraine and whether the global response to Russia is able to deter even greater escalation. A major war, if not probable, is at least plausible - and that’s a significant shift.Ĭountries across the globe - especially in Europe - are already rethinking their entire foreign policy, and that’s just the beginning. In a matter of days, Russia has upended this system. Since 1945, the world has done a remarkably good job of preventing wars between great powers and making the costs of unprovoked aggression extremely high. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a world-historical event and the effects of it will likely ripple out for years to come. ![]()
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